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Title:
Probable consequences of certain US actions with respect to Vietnam and Laos
Date of Creation:
May 25, 1964
Date of Declassification:
April 12, 1976
Type of Document:
Special National Intelligence Estimate
Level of Classification:
TOP SECRET
Status of Copy:
ORIGINAL
Pagination, Illustration:
18 p.
Abstract:
Probable consequences of certain US actions with respect to Vietnam and Laos [estimate of US actions against North Vietnam aimed at reducing Viet Cong activity in South Vietnam and Laos, and possible responses to US activities. US military actions will consist primarily of assistance in South Vietnamese air and naval operations against North Vietnam; operations will range from reconnaissance, to strikes on targets supporting DRV activity in Laos and South Vietnam, to strikes against the DRV with possible overt US military involvement. As US psychological and diplomatic actions, the US will inform Peking, Hanoi and Moscow that US intentions are limited; 5,000 combat troops will be stationed in Thailand; air, naval and ground strike units will be deployed to the Western Pacific and South China Seas; increased military and administrative support will be provided to South Vietnam; a new Geneva Conference should be averted. The North Vietnamese response will be to agitate world opinion to bring about a new Geneva Conference; Viet Cong and Pathet Lao will be ordered to refrain from dramatic new attacks; lower terms for negotiations will be proposed in expectation of being able to renew insurrection at a later date. Soviet and Chinese response: China will proceed with caution to avoid confrontation with US forces; the USSR will refrain from military activity and use influence to insure a negotiated settlement. Assessment of Hanoi's understanding of US intentions; strength of Viet Cong forces in South Vietnam; North Vietnamese capability to augment Viet Cong and Pathet Lao strength; Hanoi's defense capabilities; Hanoi's relations with China and the USSR; goals and intentions of China and the USSR]. Special National Intelligence Estimate, SNIE 50-2-64, and TS No. 0038277. May 25, 1964. 18 p. TOP SECRET/LIMITED DISTRIBUTION/CONTROLLED DISSEM. Declassified Apr. 12, 1976.
Indexing Terms:
ASSESSMENT OF US ACTIONS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
ASSESSMENT OF US ACTIONS IN LAOS
US AID FOR SOUTH VIETNAM
US BOMBING OF NORTH VIETNAM
GENEVA CONFERENCE
WORLD OPINION ABOUT US ACTIONS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
SOVIET REACTIONS TO US ACTIONS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
COMMUNIST CHINESE REACTIONS TO US ACTIONS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
NORTH VIETNAM-COMMUNIST CHINA RELATIONS
NORTH VIETNAM-SOVIET UNION RELATIONS
VIET CONG FORCES STRENGTH
PATHET LAO
NORTH VIETNAMESE INFILTRATION INTO SOUTH VIETNAM
NORTH VIETNAMESE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM
COMMUNIST CHINESE GOALS AND INTENTIONS
SOVIET INTENTIONS
ASSESSMENT OF US ACTIONS IN LAOS
US AID FOR SOUTH VIETNAM
US BOMBING OF NORTH VIETNAM
GENEVA CONFERENCE
WORLD OPINION ABOUT US ACTIONS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
SOVIET REACTIONS TO US ACTIONS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
COMMUNIST CHINESE REACTIONS TO US ACTIONS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
NORTH VIETNAM-COMMUNIST CHINA RELATIONS
NORTH VIETNAM-SOVIET UNION RELATIONS
VIET CONG FORCES STRENGTH
PATHET LAO
NORTH VIETNAMESE INFILTRATION INTO SOUTH VIETNAM
NORTH VIETNAMESE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM
COMMUNIST CHINESE GOALS AND INTENTIONS
SOVIET INTENTIONS
Declassified Documents Reference System Location:
1978-30A
Link to Full Text: